Using forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings, the team at FiveThirtyEight.com have predicted Fulham to finish in 13th place in the Championship this season with a points tally of just 62 points.
That's 18 less than they achieved last season when they finished in the Play-off places.
As a result, Fulham have been given a 12% chance of reaching the end of season showpiece at this stage of the season based on their SPI, with a 6% chance of being promoted and a <1% of being crowned Champions.
They predict that Fulham will win 15.7, draw 15 and lose 15.3 games (obviously you can't have a .1 of a win but we're working with it in terms of data here), finishing on +2 goal difference.
FiveThirtyEight predicts that Wolves, Cardiff, Sheffield United, Middlesbrough, Bristol City, Aston Villa, Derby, Brentford, Sheffield Wednesday, Nottingham Forest, Norwich and Leeds will all finish above Slavisa Jokanovic's side this season.
Looking ahead, however, they believe that Fulham are favourites heading into the game with Derby on Saturday and predict they have a 41% chance of winning, compared to Derby's 32% - with the draw given a possibility rating of 27%.
Compare that to the game with Sheffield United, who are predicted to have a 45% chance of beating Fulham next week, while Fulham are only given a 28% chance, with the draw at 27%.