Chelsea's Diego Costa is better than Sergio Aguero when it comes to the positions from where he takes his shots.

Expected goals models are a popular metric within the world of football stats. They predict how likely a shot is to end in a goal based on the position on the pitch from which it was taken.

For instance if you were attempting an angled 30-yard screamer your shot's expected goal score would be considerably lower than if you were faced with a six-yard tap-in.

We've used figures from football analyst Paul Riley's expected goals model which are freely available on his website differentgame (

One of the ideas of expected goals is to encourage players to take shots from areas more likely to result in goals rather than attempting Charlie Adam style lobs from the halfway line.

Of the Premier League's most prolific shot takers - i.e. those with at least 20 shots from open play this season - Olivier Giroud seems to have been paying attention most in analytics classes.

Premier League strikers' expected goals per shot ratio








On average his shots have an expected goals score of 0.39, just ahead of Romelu Lukaku in second place on 0.38 and Diego Costa on 0.37.

Sergio Aguero and Georginio Wijnaldum come in joint fourth on 0.35 per shot.

Out of the 23 players with at least 20 shots on target this season Tottenham's Christian Eriksen has been taking shots from the least promising positions with an average expected goal score of just 0.16.

Based on the expected goal figures we can also work out the goal of the season so far based on how unlikely the player was to score from the position they shot from.

According to the figures Cesc Fabregas' cross-cum-shot against Southampton in February was expected to produce just 0.06 goals making it the goal of the season according to the expected goals model.

Watch the moment Kompany smashes ball into Aguero's face during training:

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So far this season Tottenham's shots on goal have earned a total expected goal score of 59.3 while the shots they've conceded totalled 29.1.

This gives them an expected goal difference of 30.2 - by far the best in the league.

Arsenal come second with an expected goal difference of 24.8 while Manchester City (22.2) and Liverpool (11.2) make up the remaining two top-four spots.

Leicester are only fifth for their expected goal difference score while Manchester United are in seventh and Sunderland, Norwich and Aston Villa occupy the relegation spots.

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