There is belief Labour could take the Tory-dominated borough of Hillingdon for the first time in 20 years at the upcoming council elections despite having to overturn a seemingly unassailable majority.
That’s the message from leader of the council’s Labour group and candidate for Townfield ward, Peter Curling, as his party gears up to try to battle for the 22 wards and 65 seats up for grabs at the Hillingdon London Borough Council elections on May 3.
The Conservatives currently have 42 councillors compared to 23 for Labour and his party would need to win 33 seats in total to take the borough with a majority of one, but Mr Curling insists the council is “really one to watch”.
The borough has a well entrenched division between the Tory north, the hinterland of Conservative MP Nick Hurd in Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner, and the Labour-dominated south, the territory of Labour MP John McDonnell in Hayes and Harlington.
In between lies the less clear-cut area of South Ruislip and Uxbridge, the constituency of Boris Johnson. This area according to Mr Curling is where his party’s big chance lies.
Writing recently on the LabourList website, Mr Curling said: "For 20 years, the Conservative Party has been in control of Hillingdon Council, but for the first time since then, there is a real feeling on the ground that Labour could finally take back control.
“With a popular MP in John McDonnell, and waning support for Boris in Uxbridge where many of the marginal council seats are, many of the wards that we haven’t won before are in play. It feels like the Hillingdon Tories have no strategy in place as they simply don’t know whether to protect their own marginal seats or try to take some seats from Labour.”
Current Tory council leader and candidate for Ickenham, Ray Puddifoot responded by saying Labour say the same thing at every election but in reality rarely threatens to break out of its area of core support he dubs “fortress Hayes”.
Changing demographic
But Mr Curling believes the changing demographic of Hillingdon means there is an increasingly diverse population, with more people moving into the area who are reliant on the kind of services being cut under Conservative austerity.
He says a lack of affordable housing is becoming a glaring problem which the Tory council has not solved.
“Roads covered in potholes, homelessness and anti-social behaviour on the rise, endless numbers of blocks of flats being put up by private developers without extra provision for infrastructure, social care and services stretched so thinly – but maintained enough in name for the Conservatives to argue that there have been no cuts," he wrote.
"The Hillingdon Conservatives have a good PR model, but I am not convinced it will be enough for them to hold onto control."
Two-decades in power
Mr Puddifoot naturally dismisses these claims.
He prides himself in Hillingdon’s record under his 18-year leadership, saying: "Hillingdon has one of the largest school building programmes in London, the safest roads in London due to record investment in resurfacing, more Green Flag awards for its parks and open spaces than any other UK local authority for five consecutive years and has rebuilt or refurbished every one of its 17 libraries.
"We have also frozen council tax for 10 consecutive years and still managed to build record levels of financial reserves.”
He accuses the local Labour group of using the national party line to drive its campaign, but says people can "see for themselves" what the Conservatives have achieved.
He adds pointedly the local Tory party is guided by what is best for residents and not influenced by Momentum supporters or union officials as he alleges his Labour competitors are.
He also alleges Labour is divided, claiming some candidates have been forced to stand down and be replaced by Momentum favourites.
But despite this he stresses the Tories won’t be taking anything for granted when it comes to electioneering and will fight hard for every seat.
It seems though Labour suspects national issues like Brexit and austerity could override local issues and help them storm Hillingdon.
And the fact Tory councillors voted themselves another annual rise in annual allowances this year won't sit well with hard-pressed residents. Mr Curling says Labour abstained on voting for the allowance increases and his party would sooner give the cash to local charities.
Mr Curling is also optimistic about Labour’s choice of candidates with a focus on youth and diversity. He says at least one young person has been selected in four wards and almost half of candidates are from minority ethnic groups.
He added he is also “proud” the party has selected a young transgender woman in a marginal seat as it “demonstrates our commitment to increased representation for the LGBT community.”
The Labour manifesto is to be released shortly and will predictably focus on social issues such as setting up a register to try to stamp out rogue landlords, building a co-operative council which would work more closely with residents to plan policies and working with social care users to try to shape services to their needs and making it less complicated to claim benefits.
In short, building a “fairer and more equal borough”.
Mr Puddifoot said the Conservative party will continue to put local issues first. In particular he says he wants to protect people's quality of life in a borough which is undoubtedly more affluent that some of its neighbours.
He said he wants to see new homes, but only if they are quality homes combined with parks and amenities. He believes more bulk housing could be built further outside the M25 if transport links are improved and is proud the borough has more Green Flag awards than any other authority in the UK for its open spaces - it secured 47 in 2017.
On Heathrow, he says he will continue to fight for better air pollution and environmental controls to ensure residents don't suffer the consequences of an expansion plan he is convinced will fail.
Ultimately Mr Puddifoot says the Tories should be judged on their record running the borough for the past 20 years.
Despite this Mr Curling thinks the election result will be close - very close - with his prediction being that Labour will win somewhere between 30 and 35 seats, either taking the borough or very nearly doing so.
Whether this is what the people of Uxbridge and Ruislip sign up for, and whether Labour can in fact break out of "fortress Hayes" and take Boris's mid-borough marginals and storm the Tory strongholds in the north, remains to be seen.
The deadline for registering to vote is April 17. More details on the elections and where to find your polling station is at https://www.hillingdon.gov.uk/article/33500/General-information
