MORE than 20,000 jobs would be lost in Hounslow and unemployment would spiral to 16 percent in an economic nightmare reminiscent of London Docklands' darkest days, if Heathrow does not expand.
That was the doomsday scenario presented by the airport's owners this week, as they made their case for increasing capacity there rather than extending Stansted or building a new Thames Estuary airport.
Heathrow's owners claim the airport will be forced to close if an extra runway is not permitted, allowing it to compete with hub airports in mainland Europe - an argument refuted by both Hounslow Council and anti-Heathrow expansion campaign group HACAN.
Should that happen, Heathrow suggests, more than 100,000 people employed directly or indirectly at the airport would face re-location or redundancy.
In Hounslow, according to the airport's statistics, 10,750 residents currently working at Heathrow would lose their jobs, doubling unemployment to 16 per cent, and another 9,500 jobs dependant on the airport could also go.
"Closing Heathrow would be the biggest single redundancy programme that's ever happened across the UK. It would take what are generally quite prosperous boroughs and make them among the worst in the country for unemployment," said John Holland-Kaye, Heathrow's development director.
The figures are contained in Heathrow's latest submission to the Airports Commission, which is examining the need for extra aviation capacity, published on Tuesday (June 18).
The report claims Heathrow's transport connections, convenience for businesses and local jobs, and the speed and cost at which it could be expanded make it a better choice than any other on the table.
The airport's owners have until July 19 to submit their preferred options, believed to include a third runway to the south-west and four new runways to the west of the existing airport, to the commission.
The earliest a third runway could be up and running at Heathrow, according to its report, is 2025, compared with 2032 for a bigger Stansted and 2034 for an estuary airport.
The emphasis on speed could prove the killer blow to the four runways idea, which has gained backing from Hounslow Council and sections of the business community.
That would mean extending over at least one major reservoir supplying the capital, which would involve a lengthy planning process and a major building project.
"I think the proposal of moving four runways to the west has a lot of merit but is not without its complexities," said Mr Holland-Kaye. "It would take runways right over west London's water supply and you would need more than just a hosepipe ban to overceom that challenge, but there are some interesting ideas there."
