England may need to beat France by just two points on Saturday to win the Six Nations.
This year's tournament is set for a dramatic close this weekend as Wales play away against Italy, Ireland travel to Scotland and England play hosts to France, with England, Ireland, Wales and France all in with a chance of winning the competition.
Should England, Ireland and Wales all win their matches, then the tournament will be decided on points difference.
In all competitions during the Six Nations era, i.e. since 2000, Wales have beaten Italy on Italian soil by an average of eight points a game, while Ireland have beaten Scotland by an average of five points when in Scotland.
If that were to be repeated in this weekend's fixtures, Wales and Ireland would have points differences of plus 20 and plus 38 respectively.
England currently have a points difference of plus 37, which means they would need to beat France by just two points to top Ireland's possible plus 38.
However, England have averaged a winning margin of 12 points when playing at home against France, 10 more than their potential target.
That average goes down to a difference of four points though when all games against France are considered and not just those in England.
Taking all games into consideration increases Wales' average difference against Italy to eight, and increases Ireland's against Scotland to ten.
That means that England would be on on plus 41 points and Ireland on plus 43, pipping them to the Six Nations title for a second year in a row.
