Brentford would have to win five of their last six games to clinch an automatic promotion place – but two more wins should be enough to secure a play-off place.
So says Bees boss Mark Warburton after his side went back into the top six with the 4-1 thrashing of Fulham on Good Friday.
Normally it is club owner Matthew Benham who's the stats man, but instead Warburton has been eyeing up the table and remaining fixtures to work out what his side need to do.
They are still five points (or six if you consider their vastly inferior goal difference) off the top two, while the three points immediately below them are just a single point behind.
However, in what is set to be a tight finish in the Championship, Warburton believes the sides around them will still take plenty of points of each other.
Brentford, by contrast, have only one remaining fixture against a promotion rival (Derby), while the other five should be against teams will little to play for, starting today with Nottingham Forest , who are 11 points off the play-off pack.
Warburton said: “There are 18 points left to play for, and 84 or 85 might be enough for a top two place this year if no teams put a run together.
“The average for reaching the play-off is 72, and due to the nature of the fixtures left, I believe a minimum of 75 points will be needed this year, which is two more wins for us.”
Meanwhile, the win over Fulham might have looked comfortable enough, considering the score line and top notch nature of the goals, but Warburton admitted his side also had to dig deep and defend superbly at times too.
He added: “For the first 10 to 15 minutes we were slow to get into it, but after that we were very good. We moved the ball around and maintained our patience.
“Most disappointing for me was their penalty, which was a very soft one and changed the game. They created a few chances after that and we had to defend stoutly.”
