In a hammer blow at the end of a busy week for Boris Johnson, the airports commission has scuppered his dream of an estuary airport to replace Heathrow.

Yesterday morning (Tuesday) the Davies Commission, looking into runway capacity in the south of England, formally rejected the Mayor of London’s scheme for a Thames Estuary airport dubbed ‘Boris Island’, principally on grounds of cost and location.

Sunk? An artist's impression of 'Boris Island'

Mr Johnson immediately hit back, saying the commission, chaired by Sir Howard Davies, had undermined its own credibility with this and future governments by putting the ‘politically unacceptable’ option of Heathrow expansion firmly back in play.

Now only the two forms of Heathrow expansion – a third runway or extension of the existing two – or another runway at Gatwick Airport remain for consideration.

Just eight days ago, after returning from a family holiday in Croatia, the Mayor had mad ethe long-expected move and ‘whacked in’ his application to be the Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative Association candidate in next year’s general election.

Bookmaker Ladbrokes immediately announced it had already paid out on bets that the former MP for Henley would represent the Tories here next May.

But within 48 hours, rumours were circulating that Mr Johnson might be diverted to a somewhat tougher-seeming battle.

Tory defector Douglas Carswell quit his seat in Clacton in a bombshell announcement that he was defecting to UKIP because he wanted to see ‘fundamental change in British politics’ forcing. A by-election is required.

Mr Carswell is popular in Clacton and has said many of the local members will defect with him and easily win him the seat for UKIP. It seemed for a time that ‘only Boris’ could stop him.

But Conservative Party sources were soon playing that down, mainly on the grounds of timing – Uxbridge decides on Friday, September 12, far too soon for the Essex by-election – and Mr Johnson was said not to be keen anyway.

The hurdles still to jump

Conservative Campaign Headquarters refuses to name any of those on the ‘long list’ that the Uxbridge and South Ruislip association ‘gang of five’ must consider on Friday this week, so the media has to rely on leaks – in a process that was always likely to leak, given the intense interest Boris Johnson always attracts.

On Thursday, August 28, as applications closed, Council leader Ray Puddifoot, association chairman Councillor Wayne Bridges, and Councillors Teji Barnes, Eddie Lavery and Alan Chapman, divvied up the job of scrutinising the 62 CVs received, and looked forward to a little light weekend reading.

The colleagues will travel to Matthew Parker Street in Westminster on Friday in order to produce a short list of three candidates plus a reserve, for association members to consider at a special meeting at Ruislip High School on Friday, September 12.

Ruislip High School, where the selection procedure for the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency candidate will be held

At the high school hustings, each candidate will make a pitch of about 10 minutes then answer questions for 20 minutes.

Only fully paid up members who have been on the membership role for three months will be eligible to vote.

If a candidate secures 50 per cent of the votes in round one, they are selected. If none does, the candidate with the lowest score is eliminated and voting starts again.

The names in the frame – an unofficial list of those thought to be standing in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

Boris Johnson - Mayor of London and firm favourite with the bookies.

david simmonds

Councillor David Simmonds, pictured – Hillingdon Council deputy leader, cabinet member for education, and chairman of the Local Government Association’s children’s board. Popular local Tory and probably Boris’s most serious challenge.

Shaun Bailey – former adviser to David Cameron on youth, crime and race issues. Unsuccessfully fought the general election in Hammersmith in 2010.

Olympic rowing champion James Cracknell – staunch anti-European, lives in Ealing. However, reports yesterday (Tuesday) suggest he is looking at a number of possible opportuinities.