Brentford MP given little hope by bookies

Brentford & Isleworth MP Mary Macleod has a 73.8 per cent chance of being ousted next May, according to Ladbrokes. Read on to see how it rates your MP's chances.

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Robert Cumber

17:02, 21 JUL 2014
Updated17:32, 21 JUL 2014

Conservative MP for Brentford & Isleworth, Mary Macleod — Mary Macleod MP

Mary Macleod is west London's most endangered MP in the run-up to next year's general election, according to one bookie.

The Tory MP for Brentford and Isleworth has a 73.8 per cent chance of losing her seat next May, new statistics from Ladbrokes show.

Fellow Conservative Angie Bray, of Ealing Central and Acton, is the only other west London incumbent rated odds-on by the bookmaker to be ousted, although it says Brent Central, where Lib Dem Sarah Teather is stepping down, has an 84.79 per cent chance of changing colour.

Of the rest, only Bob Blackman, Conservative MP for Harrow East, is judged to be at significant risk, with Ladbrokes giving him a 54.21 per cent chance of clinging on.

Ladbrokes has used its odds to calculate what it describes as a 'true' percentage, taking into account the company's edge, for all serving MPs to keep their seats.

Ms Macleod, who ousted Labour's Ann Keen in 2010 with a majority of just under 2,000, is 5/2 to chalk up another victory, meaning a £10 wager would earn you £35.

"It was previously a Labour-held seat so I knew it wasn't going to be easy, but there's all to play for. This seat will always be one where every vote counts, and it's really important constituents realise that," she said.

She added that she hoped her campaigning for free parking , new schools and other issues, coupled with falling crime rates and unemployment within the constituency, would stand her in good stead.

Asked if she was tempted to have a flutter on herself, she said her time would be better spent door-knocking.

Ms Macleod's biggest rival, Labour's Ruth Cadbury , is odds on to replace her, at 2/7, with the Liberal Democrats (50/1) and UKIP (100/1) both rank outsiders.

Ms Cadbury said she felt the recent local election results, in which Labour swept to victory in Hounslow, winning 49 out of 60 seats, provided a more accurate forecast of her chances.

"I think those results showed how fed up people in Brentford & Isleworth, and indeed the rest of Hounslow, are with this government," she added.

Asked if she would be having a flutter on herself, she replied 'with those odds I'm not sure it's worth it'.

At the other end of the borough, it seems Feltham & Heston MP Seema Malhotra can sleep a little more easily than Ms Macleod, with Ladbrokes rating her chances of defeat at just 8.19 per cent.

The Labour incumbent, who won a 2011 by-election with a majority of more than 4,600, is 100/1 on to win, with the Conservative candidate, who is yet to be selected, at 16/1.

Ealing Central and Acton MP Angie Bray, who the bookmakers say has a 51.8 per cent chance of losing her seat, said: “I would never take anything for granted either way. I have got nine months to get around as many of my constituents as possible to continue what I've doing for the last four years: working as hard as I can. “People will make up their minds when the election takes place.”

Harrow East's Mr Blackman said: "Ladbrokes has predicted I'm odds on favourite to win and I'd say that might be worth a flutter, given the Conservatives enjoyed a 5 per cent lead in the local elections in Harrow East."